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State office lowers its forecast
of REET revenue through 2009
(Continued from page 29.)
a lot of economic problems. The
sales tax reflects consumer opti-
mism," Gowrylow said.
BY THIS MEASURE Mason
County was somewhat more opti-
mistic than the state as a whole,
with sales of about $338.6 million
in 2001 growing by 8.3 percent
to about $366.7 million in 2002.
Things started booming in 2003
with sales of about $394.5 million
and by last year they were about
$528.3 million, an increase of 56
percent since 2001. Statewide
sales and the government revenue
they produce have been rising rap-
idly too, hitting $110.5 billion last
year.
"We've had strong growth,"
Gowrylow said. "That's why the
state has been piling up a surplus,
because we've had strong growth
in all taxes."
One of the taxes pales in com-
parison to sales but may just
give the Washington Economic
and Revenue Forecast Council
a glimpse of things to come. The
real-estate excise tax, REET for
short, is levied on the sale price of
a home and split between the state
and the county, a circumstance
which finds it depending on gen-
eral trends in the housing market.
Information provided by a Realtors
group shows that the number of
homes selling here has been down
in recent months and the prices
of homes likely to sell next month
were slightly lower, according to
one measuring stick. Information
provided by government officials
shows that last" year the local
share of the REET was slightly
down from 2005 to $2,083,091 and
may be lower still when all is said
and done about 2007.
As it happens, the REET has
followed the general trend of rap-
id growth after people recovered
from the shock of 9/11. Income to
the county from the REET went
from $469,415 in 2001 to more
than $2.2 million in 2005. REET
revenue to the state as a whole
was projected at $1 billion for this
year but was revised downward
on Thursday by Dr. ChangMook
Sohn of the forecast council. That
agency reduced its estimate of fu-
ture REET revenue to the state's
general by $124.4 million through
2009.
"THE NEW NATIONAL and
state economic forecasts are simi-
lar to the fbrecasts adopted in Sep-
tember and the forecasts for most
of the state's major revenue sourc-
es are little changed," ChangMook
said. "However, the value of trans-
actions subject to the real-estate
excise tax has dropped more pre-
cipitously than expected in Sep-
tember."
Unknown is whether a decline
in real estate values will erode the
"consumer optimism" that drives
the sales tax, but there is cause for
concern that a statewide surge in
construction might be running out
of steam. Permits for new homes
in Mason County were down quite
a bit in October, and with housing
prices going soft that could also
happen in the state as a whole.
"The one wild card is there is
something called elasticity," Gow-
rylow said.
Elasticity is a word economists
apply to an historical trend show-
ing that a 1 percent increase in
our collective income goes hand-
in-hand with an increase of about
one-half of 1 percent in our col-
lective spending. What has Gow-
yrlow and others scratching their
heads is evidence that in recent
years spending has grown faster
than income, a phenomenon many
attribute to a general feeling that
people have been feeling richer be-
cause the estimated value of their
homes has been rising rapidly.
Some had taken out loans on the
added value and some have spent
some of that money, a ploy that
doesn't work if housing values are
stagnant or start to fall.
"SPENDING HAS been in-
creasing faster than income," Gow-
rylow said. "Those kind of things
can't go on forever."
He said "we're still in the in-
crease phase" and the numbers
bear this out. The latest report
from the Department of Revenue
indicates that in the months of
May through June taxable retail
sales grew 9.9 percent in Mason
County and 7.9 percent in the
state as a whole when compared
to the same three months of last
year. "We have more people mov-
ing into the state," Gowrylow said.
"The economy is growing. We have
more people, and so if you have fiat
revenue you have a problem."
What's the wheel deal? Why it's the lo-
comotive on Railroad Avenue known as
"the Tollie" if you have a Passport to His-
torical Sites from the Mason County His-
torical Society Museum, 427 West Rail-
road Avenue. Passports are given free
Civil service
The Mason County Commission
seeks an individual to fill a position
on the Mason County Civil Service
Commission that will expire Decem-
ber 31. This is for a six-year term,
ending December 31, 2013.
To qualify, the individual must
be a U.S. citizen, registered to vote
and a resident of Mason County for
at least the past two years. This
person cannot be an employee of the
county government and shall serve
without compensation.
The Civil Service Commission es-
tablishes a merit system of employ-
ment for deputies and other employ-
A train of thought Swh00
of charge to persons who stop there
want to take a tour of downtown
ton. Prizes will be awarded to those
correctly answer questions like:
was Tollie? For more c
information
426-1020.
board has vacancy /
ees of the Mason County Sheriffs til December 14. Interested p
Office. Commissioners meet at 3 may obtain an application forl
p.m. on the second Thursday of each stopping by 411 North Fifth St
month in Mason County Building Shelton, by visiting thecounty's
IX in downtown Shelton. site at www.co.mason.wa.--"'--"
Applications will be accepted un- by calling 427-9670, Extensional
Moms host Belfair baza00i
The Belfair chapter of MOPS,
also known as Mothers of Pre-
schoolers, will have a Christmas
bazaar on Saturday, November
24, from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. at Belfair
Assembly of God, 23001 NE State
Route 3.
On sale will be
ed and homemade items,
goods and stocking stuffers.
cheon with homemade
served starting at 11 o'clock.
New Community Mt. Olive T. [AVId ClulZOJ!!L1D
Church of Union Lutheran Church F,,+omPr++heaPra,ce
Sunday Gatherings "v ". "p days {with child :h.
Missour, 'Whorl (/orshl Sun careJ
.(;, (All are wdco,m'/) 206 I:dt Wydndotte Avenue Services 7:30 & 10:30 a.ff I, iN
WORSHIP SERVICES ContemporaryService .......... 8:30 am. Worship at 3.24 West Cedar street l&
Office pnone: 426-8472
8:30 and 10:30 Christian Educatk)n ................. 9:45 a.m. stdavidofwales org l
at the Traditional Worship ............... ll:00 din. 11:: Pt..:eAL CtJuatl IIX
Union Fire Hall
You are invited to attend 50 E. Seattle St., Union 98592 Office 4266353 Heavenl- "1"-'- !
1 ]Ill
I)aytare 427 3165 . y 1 II
the services of your choice 3.60-898-7855 / Thurs.-Sat. I t a.m.-4 p.m. ]
web rote www thenccu org
www.mt oliveshelt on.org Phone: 462-4438" 'E;
at these local area churches, wed site', www.mtccu.org
LU i astor Steve O,son • Associate Pastor Ma:k Griffith SI-- "W6/?YtT:# i}tl ' .
426-8611 1212 ConnccuonSt. ' ;i' I i i
• A , Traditional Worship ...... 8:45 a.m.
trt-cteraa
Chumb Contemporary Worship ... 11 a.m. " ' b
• Bible Study. Daycare M-F 462-5437* Youth Activities [Grace Bantmt Church00 l
.... / ... I "°g)':|, t
I Times of Services. mllllml f.,', .w. lc.
H / Sunday School .......................... 9 a.m. 1..2U..2''11. e
"Sharing a Message of Hope" I Worship Service ...................... 10 am. /r re,
1 Sunday Evening ....................... 6 p.m. Mm,: u, 9
Sabbath School (all ages) 9:30 a.m. Saturday | Wednesday Bible Study 7 p m lPO Box 1025, Shelton, WA!
Worship Service I 0:S0 a.m. Saturday / ..... ' ............. 1Phone: (360) 462-161f _a l I
210 W. Shelton Valley Road (360) 426-2776 [ ....... r m us a... l Fmil: past0r@gbcshelt0n., 1
Olympic tlwy. N., suite 130 • Shelton, WA Web address, wwwgbcshel !1
SHELTON VALLEY CHRISTIAN SCHOOL Grades K-8 N Webaddre:www.gbcsh¢l , 1
Washington State Accredited Certified Teaching Staff
201 W. Shelton Valley Road (360) 426-4198
CALVARY FELLOWSHIP
OF SHELTOH
Nondenominational. Family Centered
Corner of Highway 101 and Railroad Ave..426-7021
Sunday Wor,hip erice 10:00 a.m.
A casual and uplifting worship exper/ence
F|¢tt 8al)t|tt ChUrCh www. sheltonfbc.org ]
428 W. Cola Street, Shelton, WA 98584 360.426.8461 emall fbc@hctc.com I
,s,. +++ o .o-.. i+fem+i00i00 I
SUn¢I Wolhip eS: 9:00 & 10:.10 am
Adult Bible Classes: 8, 9 & ! 0:30 am LaUrlo Worship Service
Children's Ministry: 9 & 10:30 am [Nursery--2nd grcl.] I
Tweeners Discovery Classes: 9 am 13rd-7m grd.l Sundays, 6 pm
I
yOU m Truth Project: 9am [8--12th grd.] Pastor Esau Del Area ]
Latlno Youth program:.
I
Wednesdalys Nights: YOU m Church 555pm 121 a,I rlarsdays 30 pm
AWANA CLUB--Wednesday 6:I S- 8,'00 pm IX-Sin. Sep--fMl I
Small Groups availe throughout the week.
I
llk,a/sm,i'wa " shariw llfegivlng hope, Jbr eveo'day l,
Pton United Mhodist Church
www.sheltonumc.com
Yeuth Group
Chlldrea% ActtvR
$tmual Grw Chsm
Adult Ch
Smlt Oup,
Bdl Choir
Inteqlenatlonal Minlstrt
Inlmi¢ Worllp Empilm:¢
l' [,pk of Sldtt:m I/nitat ,let]dit C/m'h
Pago 38 - Sholton-Mason County Journal - Thursday, Novombor 22, 2007
CrossPoint Service Traditional Sorvloo ,,,' ",|:
/ ,+ N A more contemporary servk'e A more traditional service ? . II +,la
(RO$ OINT b ' S t "
..... .......... I rat,'e Band • 1 raise Team 10.45 AM + [ 10l
• ContempordryMessdge Choir ' / r
Children and Adult Sunday School 9 AM • Childcare both servlttil
il I "1
GATEWAY CHRISTIAN FELLOWSH
405 S. Seventh St. @ Shelton, WA 98584 @ 360.426.2758 • www.gatewaycf.c°#ll
S.nd+ +oo+ I t
10:30 a.m. Celebration Service, Attended Nursery, Children's II ll:
Ministry I It c0
1:30 p.m. Hispanic (Bilingual) Worship Service II II
4:00 p.m. Freedom in Recovery 12-Step (Childcare provided) I! I t4117
Tuesday 6:30 p.m. Bible Study and Prayer Service II ll r:
Wednesday 7:00 p.m. Mid-week Service, SoulFire Youth and Children's 11 I{ '
Ministry
" " " '"
Helpmg people become whole m Jesus Christ
State office lowers its forecast
of REET revenue through 2009
(Continued from page 29.)
a lot of economic problems. The
sales tax reflects consumer opti-
mism," Gowrylow said.
BY THIS MEASURE Mason
County was somewhat more opti-
mistic than the state as a whole,
with sales of about $338.6 million
in 2001 growing by 8.3 percent
to about $366.7 million in 2002.
Things started booming in 2003
with sales of about $394.5 million
and by last year they were about
$528.3 million, an increase of 56
percent since 2001. Statewide
sales and the government revenue
they produce have been rising rap-
idly too, hitting $110.5 billion last
year.
"We've had strong growth,"
Gowrylow said. "That's why the
state has been piling up a surplus,
because we've had strong growth
in all taxes."
One of the taxes pales in com-
parison to sales but may just
give the Washington Economic
and Revenue Forecast Council
a glimpse of things to come. The
real-estate excise tax, REET for
short, is levied on the sale price of
a home and split between the state
and the county, a circumstance
which finds it depending on gen-
eral trends in the housing market.
Information provided by a Realtors
group shows that the number of
homes selling here has been down
in recent months and the prices
of homes likely to sell next month
were slightly lower, according to
one measuring stick. Information
provided by government officials
shows that last" year the local
share of the REET was slightly
down from 2005 to $2,083,091 and
may be lower still when all is said
and done about 2007.
As it happens, the REET has
followed the general trend of rap-
id growth after people recovered
from the shock of 9/11. Income to
the county from the REET went
from $469,415 in 2001 to more
than $2.2 million in 2005. REET
revenue to the state as a whole
was projected at $1 billion for this
year but was revised downward
on Thursday by Dr. ChangMook
Sohn of the forecast council. That
agency reduced its estimate of fu-
ture REET revenue to the state's
general by $124.4 million through
2009.
"THE NEW NATIONAL and
state economic forecasts are simi-
lar to the fbrecasts adopted in Sep-
tember and the forecasts for most
of the state's major revenue sourc-
es are little changed," ChangMook
said. "However, the value of trans-
actions subject to the real-estate
excise tax has dropped more pre-
cipitously than expected in Sep-
tember."
Unknown is whether a decline
in real estate values will erode the
"consumer optimism" that drives
the sales tax, but there is cause for
concern that a statewide surge in
construction might be running out
of steam. Permits for new homes
in Mason County were down quite
a bit in October, and with housing
prices going soft that could also
happen in the state as a whole.
"The one wild card is there is
something called elasticity," Gow-
rylow said.
Elasticity is a word economists
apply to an historical trend show-
ing that a 1 percent increase in
our collective income goes hand-
in-hand with an increase of about
one-half of 1 percent in our col-
lective spending. What has Gow-
yrlow and others scratching their
heads is evidence that in recent
years spending has grown faster
than income, a phenomenon many
attribute to a general feeling that
people have been feeling richer be-
cause the estimated value of their
homes has been rising rapidly.
Some had taken out loans on the
added value and some have spent
some of that money, a ploy that
doesn't work if housing values are
stagnant or start to fall.
"SPENDING HAS been in-
creasing faster than income," Gow-
rylow said. "Those kind of things
can't go on forever."
He said "we're still in the in-
crease phase" and the numbers
bear this out. The latest report
from the Department of Revenue
indicates that in the months of
May through June taxable retail
sales grew 9.9 percent in Mason
County and 7.9 percent in the
state as a whole when compared
to the same three months of last
year. "We have more people mov-
ing into the state," Gowrylow said.
"The economy is growing. We have
more people, and so if you have fiat
revenue you have a problem."
What's the wheel deal? Why it's the lo-
comotive on Railroad Avenue known as
"the Tollie" if you have a Passport to His-
torical Sites from the Mason County His-
torical Society Museum, 427 West Rail-
road Avenue. Passports are given free
Civil service
The Mason County Commission
seeks an individual to fill a position
on the Mason County Civil Service
Commission that will expire Decem-
ber 31. This is for a six-year term,
ending December 31, 2013.
To qualify, the individual must
be a U.S. citizen, registered to vote
and a resident of Mason County for
at least the past two years. This
person cannot be an employee of the
county government and shall serve
without compensation.
The Civil Service Commission es-
tablishes a merit system of employ-
ment for deputies and other employ-
A train of thought Swh00
of charge to persons who stop there
want to take a tour of downtown
ton. Prizes will be awarded to those
correctly answer questions like:
was Tollie? For more c
information
426-1020.
board has vacancy /
ees of the Mason County Sheriffs til December 14. Interested p
Office. Commissioners meet at 3 may obtain an application forl
p.m. on the second Thursday of each stopping by 411 North Fifth St
month in Mason County Building Shelton, by visiting thecounty's
IX in downtown Shelton. site at www.co.mason.wa.--"'--"
Applications will be accepted un- by calling 427-9670, Extensional
Moms host Belfair baza00i
The Belfair chapter of MOPS,
also known as Mothers of Pre-
schoolers, will have a Christmas
bazaar on Saturday, November
24, from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. at Belfair
Assembly of God, 23001 NE State
Route 3.
On sale will be
ed and homemade items,
goods and stocking stuffers.
cheon with homemade
served starting at 11 o'clock.
New Community Mt. Olive T. [AVId ClulZOJ!!L1D
Church of Union Lutheran Church F,,+omPr++heaPra,ce
Sunday Gatherings "v ". "p days {with child :h.
Missour, 'Whorl (/orshl Sun careJ
.(;, (All are wdco,m'/) 206 I:dt Wydndotte Avenue Services 7:30 & 10:30 a.ff I, iN
WORSHIP SERVICES ContemporaryService .......... 8:30 am. Worship at 3.24 West Cedar street l&
Office pnone: 426-8472
8:30 and 10:30 Christian Educatk)n ................. 9:45 a.m. stdavidofwales org l
at the Traditional Worship ............... ll:00 din. 11:: Pt..:eAL CtJuatl IIX
Union Fire Hall
You are invited to attend 50 E. Seattle St., Union 98592 Office 4266353 Heavenl- "1"-'- !
1 ]Ill
I)aytare 427 3165 . y 1 II
the services of your choice 3.60-898-7855 / Thurs.-Sat. I t a.m.-4 p.m. ]
web rote www thenccu org
www.mt oliveshelt on.org Phone: 462-4438" 'E;
at these local area churches, wed site', www.mtccu.org
LU i astor Steve O,son • Associate Pastor Ma:k Griffith SI-- "W6/?YtT:# i}tl ' .
426-8611 1212 ConnccuonSt. ' ;i' I i i
• A , Traditional Worship ...... 8:45 a.m.
trt-cteraa
Chumb Contemporary Worship ... 11 a.m. " ' b
• Bible Study. Daycare M-F 462-5437* Youth Activities [Grace Bantmt Church00 l
.... / ... I "°g)':|, t
I Times of Services. mllllml f.,', .w. lc.
H / Sunday School .......................... 9 a.m. 1..2U..2''11. e
"Sharing a Message of Hope" I Worship Service ...................... 10 am. /r re,
1 Sunday Evening ....................... 6 p.m. Mm,: u, 9
Sabbath School (all ages) 9:30 a.m. Saturday | Wednesday Bible Study 7 p m lPO Box 1025, Shelton, WA!
Worship Service I 0:S0 a.m. Saturday / ..... ' ............. 1Phone: (360) 462-161f _a l I
210 W. Shelton Valley Road (360) 426-2776 [ ....... r m us a... l Fmil: past0r@gbcshelt0n., 1
Olympic tlwy. N., suite 130 • Shelton, WA Web address, wwwgbcshel !1
SHELTON VALLEY CHRISTIAN SCHOOL Grades K-8 N Webaddre:www.gbcsh¢l , 1
Washington State Accredited Certified Teaching Staff
201 W. Shelton Valley Road (360) 426-4198
CALVARY FELLOWSHIP
OF SHELTOH
Nondenominational. Family Centered
Corner of Highway 101 and Railroad Ave..426-7021
Sunday Wor,hip erice 10:00 a.m.
A casual and uplifting worship exper/ence
F|¢tt 8al)t|tt ChUrCh www. sheltonfbc.org ]
428 W. Cola Street, Shelton, WA 98584 360.426.8461 emall fbc@hctc.com I
,s,. +++ o .o-.. i+fem+i00i00 I
SUn¢I Wolhip eS: 9:00 & 10:.10 am
Adult Bible Classes: 8, 9 & ! 0:30 am LaUrlo Worship Service
Children's Ministry: 9 & 10:30 am [Nursery--2nd grcl.] I
Tweeners Discovery Classes: 9 am 13rd-7m grd.l Sundays, 6 pm
I
yOU m Truth Project: 9am [8--12th grd.] Pastor Esau Del Area ]
Latlno Youth program:.
I
Wednesdalys Nights: YOU m Church 555pm 121 a,I rlarsdays 30 pm
AWANA CLUB--Wednesday 6:I S- 8,'00 pm IX-Sin. Sep--fMl I
Small Groups availe throughout the week.
I
llk,a/sm,i'wa " shariw llfegivlng hope, Jbr eveo'day l,
Pton United Mhodist Church
www.sheltonumc.com
Yeuth Group
Chlldrea% ActtvR
$tmual Grw Chsm
Adult Ch
Smlt Oup,
Bdl Choir
Inteqlenatlonal Minlstrt
Inlmi¢ Worllp Empilm:¢
l' [,pk of Sldtt:m I/nitat ,let]dit C/m'h
Pago 38 - Sholton-Mason County Journal - Thursday, Novombor 22, 2007
CrossPoint Service Traditional Sorvloo ,,,' ",|:
/ ,+ N A more contemporary servk'e A more traditional service ? . II +,la
(RO$ OINT b ' S t "
..... .......... I rat,'e Band • 1 raise Team 10.45 AM + [ 10l
• ContempordryMessdge Choir ' / r
Children and Adult Sunday School 9 AM • Childcare both servlttil
il I "1
GATEWAY CHRISTIAN FELLOWSH
405 S. Seventh St. @ Shelton, WA 98584 @ 360.426.2758 • www.gatewaycf.c°#ll
S.nd+ +oo+ I t
10:30 a.m. Celebration Service, Attended Nursery, Children's II ll:
Ministry I It c0
1:30 p.m. Hispanic (Bilingual) Worship Service II II
4:00 p.m. Freedom in Recovery 12-Step (Childcare provided) I! I t4117
Tuesday 6:30 p.m. Bible Study and Prayer Service II ll r:
Wednesday 7:00 p.m. Mid-week Service, SoulFire Youth and Children's 11 I{ '
Ministry
" " " '"
Helpmg people become whole m Jesus Christ